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Global Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns/GuruFocus.com 

  • Global Stock Market Valuations and Expected Future Returns/GuruFocus.com

  • Where Are We with Global Market Valuations?

    Before we start, we would like to point out that at the left sidebar of this page you can find the implied future returns of the world’s 18 largest stock markets, sorted from the highest return to the lowest for developed markets and emerging markets.

    Since we published the market valuation and implied future return based on the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP, it has served as a good indicator for the overall market valuation of the U.S. stock market. We have also added the Shiller P/E page, which looks at the market valuation from a normalized earnings perspective, and gives similar conclusions on overall market valuations and future market returns.

    Those two pages have served the U.S. market very well. However, a lot of users asked us about the international market. Indeed, sometimes investors are better served to invest internationally. The purpose of this page is to provide an overview of the stock market valuations of the 18 largest economies in the world. The indicator we use is still the percentages of the total market caps of these countries over their own GDPs.

    As pointed out by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” Unlike the U.S. market, the histories of the data for other countries are not long enough to provide a more accurate projection of future returns. But still we believe that this page can give a good idea on where the market stands currently with overall valuations.

    Before we get into the details of how we arrived at our results, these are the implied returns of the stock market worldwide, including both developed markets and emerging markets, as displayed in the left sidebar. This page is updated daily.
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